The right's next big scare tactic

My office mate occasionally organizes a movie night, showing something or other that people at the Institute might want to watch in the seminar room. When he heard that there were two movies, called Demographic Winter and Demography Bomb, he figured they would be of interest to an Institute full of demographers, and he got a copy of the DVDs from somewhere.

Twenty or thirty of us came to watch. Now Demographers are a pretty staid crowd, but by ten minutes in people were chuckling, and within a half hour there was full-bellied, breathing-difficulty, rolled over in pain laughing going on. Clearly, people who actually think about demography were not the target audience.

These two documentaries, are based on the premise, which they take intensely seriously, that humanity (or at least the white section thereof) is at risk of economic ruin, political chaos, pain, suffering, homosexuality, the death of the traditional family and ultimate and total extinction because of a population control conspiracy by the UN, the EU, the Ford Foundation, Democrats, Liberals, Communists, UC Berkeley, Charles Darwin, Malthus, W.E.B DuBois, Gloria Steinem, Big Gay, Nazis, Feminazis, and most of all Paul Ehrlich. Dr. Erhlich, a professor at Stanford is a favorite punching bag of the right because he made many and varied dire predictions back in the sixties and seventies, and like most prolific prognosticators, many of his forecasts were wrong. His 1968 book, The Population Bomb, is identified as the driving source behind the idea that overpopulation might be a problem. In it he made various overly pessimistic predictions about the rate of population growth and the rate of food productivity growth, and concluded that we would see mass starvation of hundreds of millions of people by the 1970s or '80s. That this didn't happen is taken as proof that there are no possible ill effects of overpopulation, and that in fact humans are now heading toward population decline, which will by the end of the century see an under populated world dominated by geriatric patients, Muslims and Latinos. The same three or four animated graphics are shown incessantly, demonstrating that "westerners" (i.e., white people) are going extinct. "By the end of the century, there may not be any actual French people in France." They string together statements from representatives of various Teabagger interest groups and wildly out of context statements by academics (often repeating the same clip of the same academic to make it seem like they are agreeing with two very different ideas) with alternatively faux-reasonable and openly snarky narrators. The failure of the US auto industry, the housing bubble, immigration, homosexuality, terrorism, crime, feminism and the excesses of Wall Street are all shown to be symptoms of insufficiently rapid population growth. Demographers from all over the world hooted and guffawed and thought it was just the funniest damn thing they had seen.

Now like most vehemently presented lies, there is a grain of truth to the hysteria behind the movie. That grain is this: some, but not all, population forecasts predict that world population will cease growing some time around 2050, and may gradually decline for some decades thereafter, falling from maybe 9 billion to maybe 8.5 billion by 2100, and in the mean time the ratio of older people to younger people will temporarily increase. (Forecasts any further out than that are beyond the realm of speculation into pure fantasy, but one thing we can say with high confidence is that no population is likely to just stop breeding and go extinct.) This will pose some serious issues we need to think about over the next few decades. (I've written about this before, here.) Our markets, as currently structured, assume continuous population growth, and we don't yet have very clear ideas about how we need to adapt to population decline if it happens. Having lots of old people per working adult is a problem if you assume that it takes the same number of working adults to take care of each old person, and ignore that their will simultaneously be fewer children for those adults to take care of. The problem with the argument, even if you take out the hysteria, conspiracy theorizing, snarkiness, smear tactics and brain-washing techniques, is that overpopulation has known, current and disastrous consequences (see "Collapse" by Jared Diamond for several hundred pages on that, also a significant portion of the articles in Population and Development Review or Conservation Biology). I have never met a demographer who argues the problems of population decline are likely to be worse than those associated with population growth, or with trying to maintain a planet with more than 9,000,000,000 people on it. Second, I've never heard any demographer suggest that the cause of the eventual decline will be anything resulting from any policy of population control. Rather, educated, urban, mobile populations (and especially educated women) have fewer kids later in life, and that slows population growth. As the educational level and economic mobility of the world's women improves, and as people continue to move to cities, they will tend to reproduce less, no matter what the UN or Professor Ehrlich tells them. The clergy also have relatively little influence (see Italy).

But now that the lie is out there, no matter how laughable, it is a convenient tool for anyone who wants to argue against population control measures, family planning, contraception, feminism, etc. A friend pointed out to me a post on The Weekly Standard's blog stating that, "the discussion in demography circles isn't 'How do we cope with two extra China's?' Rather, it's "'How do we manage one of those extra China's disappearing?'" Living in a "demography circle," I can report that the Weekly Standard's unnamed source for that statement is a made-for-Fox-News propaganda special called "Demographic Winter" and its sequel (which borrows numerous lengthy sections from the first part) called "Demography Bomb." Type "population decline" into Google blog search and up come numerous posts on conservative blogs mumbling the same point.

So while my international colleagues were laughing their lungs out, I was exchanging dark glances with the only other American in the room. To those not familiar with the propaganda machine of the U.S. far right, the movie was pure, bizarre, hilarious fluff. Man-eating purple platypus stuff. One of my colleagues later asked me, "Republicans aren't idiots right? So they do not take that [compound expletive] seriously. Maybe a few nutballs? This is a joke?" But to me, it was clear this was yet one more battle being opened in the American right's war on science. As long as one is denying evolution, climate change and the moon landings, may as well claim that demographers don't see any possible drawbacks to overpopulation, and in fact that population collapse is just around the corner.

Expect to hear more of this particular lie in the years ahead. As the right touts the four biologists willing to deny the possibility of evolution, expect them to repeatedly trot out the few demographers willing to pretend that humanity's very existence is threatened by population control.

The climate tempest's teapot

You may have noticed the recent hullabaloo about the stolen email records from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The people who hacked into the system, and the climate-change-denier community generally, have taken the content of these emails as proof positive that climate science is all one big hoax. What they actually have is evidence that on one occasion one climate scientist informed his colleagues that he was doing some mildly misleading things to one graph to make it look prettier. Clearly he shouldn't do that, but this is proof of basically nothing beyond itself. I won't dwell on the point. Those who can't accept the global flood of evidence for anthropogenic climate change are not susceptible to logic or evidence, and none of the seven regular readers of this blog are among that crowd.

What I think is interesting about this is the extraordinarily high level of truthfulness we expect from our scientists these days. Journalists, politicians, doctors and lawyers are all expected to, in varying degrees, present pictures which are rosier, clearer, more advantageous or less illegal than the straight hard truth. A defense attorney is expected to find the most preferable interpretation of truth, rather than the straight up truth. Doctors need to make their patients feel comfortable and confident, even if that means overstating their confidence. No one is surprised when Republican appointed judges reach different decisions than Democratic appointed judges. Text-book writers are free to get as much wildly wrong as they want, usually for no apparent reason. Advertising is the art of misleading without directly lying in a provable way. But Phil Jones, the guy who fudged the graph, is resigning his appointment.

This is not to say that I think this level of expectation is a bad thing. Scientists don't have the excuses for bending the truth that lawyers or doctors or journalists have. We are supposed to fight desperately hard against our biases, against anything that prejudices our communications or thinking. Of course realistically many scientists fail to live up to this ideal, and there are (and should be) consequences when these failings are exposed. But one of the many things reactionary deniers of all sorts (moon landings, evolution, Holocaust, climate, HIV/AIDS, etc.) tend to refuse to see is that science also has powerful mechanisms for keeping any one person's malfeasance from making too much of a difference to our larger understanding. The more respected and influential a scientist is, the more people there are looking to poke holes in everything he does. The more enshrined an idea is, the more it benefits the career of a young researcher if she can point out a fatal flaw, an exception, a modification, even an unexplained corner. Every scientist that was ever great built his or her reputation and career by finding flaws, limitations or unanswered questions in the work of older, more established scholars. If I could produce convincing evidence that macroevolution doesn't happen, I would be the most successful scientist of the century (unfortunately for me, macroevolution happens, so producing that evidence is going to be hard). Under such a system, fakery may help get a single paper published, even help build a successful career, but it can't easily lead to a lasting consensus that is contrary to data that somebody else can go out and collect, because somebody is always trying to tear a hole in anything that could possibly be torn. The single best argument for anthropogenic climate change is that nobody has yet succeeded in blowing a hole in it.

Argument of Science!

Listening to NPR this morning, I heard two stories which did an excellent job of articulating two opposing point of view, both wrong, which taken together helped me articulate to myself how scientific knowledge is formed, and the difference between a denier and a skeptic.

The first story was about an extremely bright 15 year old who sat down to read the science on global warming, decided she didn't believe humans were causing the change, and then set up a hugely popular website 'debunking' the climate change 'hysteria' and attacking the scientists who support it. She objects not only to their conclusions, but to their dismissal of those who make the arguments she makes.

The second was about the Pope, and his visit to the US. One of the main goals of this tour, and this pope, is the War on Relativism. The pope argues that in this modern era, people believe that there is no objective truth, that every viewpoint is equally valid, and therefore anyone can believe anything they want. He argues that if there is no objective truth, we are all lost in a swamp of uncertainty, and life is not only meaningless but unpleasant.

So the 15 year old thinks that anyone who looks at the evidence and makes up her mind should be taken seriously, and the Pope thinks we need to have one objective truth arbitrated by the Church. To my way of thinking, they are both wrong.

Science (as a process and a culture) is neither a free for all where every view is equally valid, nor a dictatorship where those in high status can pontificate and the 15 year olds have to listen. Science is, in the words of Ernst Mayr, "one long argument," but it is a highly organized argument. There are only certain ways one is permitted to advance one's viewpoint. One can present data, but one cannot engage in personal attacks (although Mayr himself was well known for questioning the intelligence of those who disagreed with him). One can criticize, or tear to shreds, the logic used by other scientists, but one cannot simply refuse to listen. One can question the motives of others, but then still has to look at their arguments. If evidence is legitimate, one has the responsibility to be open to being won over. Personal attacks like 'quack', 'pseudo-scientist', 'corporate whore' and so on are to be reserved for those who grossly violate these rules. The only way this argument ever reaches an endpoint is if everyone on one side is either won over or dies of old age. Even then, if someone thinks they have found new evidence that the world is in fact flat, they can reopen the argument. Science does not deliver absolute, unquestionable truths.

But while you can argue anything you want, if your argument does not meet certain standards, it, and you, will be dismissed out of hand. Your statements must be logical, consistent with and based on data and must demonstrate knowledge of and meaningful response to what has been said and written before. If you want to argue that the world is flat, you'd better have a good explanation for all those data that seem to suggest a spherical Earth. And how a flat Earth came into being, and tides, and cosmology, and so on and so forth. There is a strong scientific consensus on the basic shape of the Earth (although there are bulges and deviations from sphericallity that still need to be better understood), because there is overwhelming evidence from a wide range of disciplines. The same can be said for the reality of evolution, the Holocaust, global warming, and a variety of other topics where the argument continues despite being settled in the minds of almost all scholars.

Those who oppose the consensus view on these issues generally point out that science is not "majority rule." As an example, the great majority of geologists long thought that plate tectonics was a ridiculous idea, and if the majority had ruled, we would have rejected what is now a foundational (possibly even bed-rock?) concept of geology, geography and evolution. It is therefore important to address this objection, because while true, it is a straw man. No reasonable scientist believes that truth can be arrived at through a popular vote of experts. That is not how the long argument works.

The relevant fact is not that the vast majority of informed scientists now accept plate-tectonics, but rather that we had that argument, and the plate-tectonics skeptics were unable to explain the data. Skeptics were converted, or gradually modified their views, or retired, and the number of supporters increased. The heroes in this story, from my perspective, are not those who believe because their teachers told them so, but those who were open minded enough to carefully change their minds.

We now accept plate-tectonics because the skeptics, being good scientists, had no choice but to look at the evidence presented, and there was eventually no logical way to cling to the view that continents are too big to move. "Eventually" being several decades.

So maybe several decades from now, we will have rejected evolutionary theory, decided that the Holocaust was just a historical ploy by the Jews for sympathy in their bid for an Israeli state, and realized that the global climate is just naturally cycling? Possible, but not likely, for several reasons.

First, plate-tectonics was a new idea that opposed everything humans had always assumed about our world. It was a hard idea to wrap a mind around. Creationism is not a new, radical and difficult to comprehend idea (my niece is dating a creationist who says he believes it because it is easier to understand than evolution, and his family believes it). Nor is a naturally controlled climate, or anti-Semitism. The idea of plate-tectonics overcame a distinct disadvantage these other ideas don't have.

Second, plate-tectonics took so long to gain acceptance partially because it took that long for technology to improve enough to produce convincing data. But during those decades, data gradually accrued. These other ideas have been around for decades, or millennia, and during that time the evidence has increasingly pointed against them.

Third, there was no lobby or faith pushing plate tectonics. No one stood to get rich or win political points by arguing that the crust of the earth moves and changes. Quite the opposite. The same cannot be said for Ahmadinejad, Bush and Exxon-Mobil.

Finally, and most importantly, there never was a body of data showing that the continents had always been in their current locations. That was the null hypothesis. We have enormous bodies of data supporting the reality of evolution, the Holocaust and anthropogenic climate change. Those who argued for plate-tectonics did not have to ignore or misinterpret a similar body of data presented by the other side. Scientific creationists (pseudo-scientists), scholarly anti-Semites (quacks) and professional global warming deniers (corporate whores) have to do exactly that. The only way to advance their views within the rules of the scientific process is to take all that data, and show us why it is fake or misunderstood. It is because they can't do this that they are disrespected. (Let me here be entirely clear that these insults are not intended to include either the pope or the teenager, both of who are honest non-scientists.)

The argument cannot be won, so there will always be Flat-Earthers, Static-Plate-ers, Creationists, and deniers of the Holocaust and Global Warming. And those people have the right to their points of view. And we have the responsibility to look at any new evidence they produce, if it really is new and it really is relevant evidence. We don't have to pay attention to people who, for the 5 millionth time, argue that the human eye is irreducibly complex and therefore there is a God. They violate the rules of the argument both by ignoring what has already been said, and by foregoing logic, and thereby forfeit their right to be taken seriously.

So, all of that said, how would I reply to the young woman who doesn't believe in human caused climate change, and to the Pope? To her I would say, "It is great that you are getting into science, and you absolutely have the right to come to your own conclusions. Based on your statements, I believe you have misunderstood much of what you read, and been mislead by those with a financial interest in misleading the public. I encourage you to learn more about the conceptual fields on which the science rests." To the Pope I would say, "The days when the Catholic Church was the unquestionable arbiter of truth for western civilization are long gone. At no point in the foreseeable future will the Church, or any other entity, resume that role. I respectfully suggest you accept this and guide the church into a new and more constructive role."