I will say first that I find it difficult to imagine any
rich modern country taking climate change more seriously, or being more eager
to take concrete actions to oppose it, than does Denmark. Danish individuals,
society and government, including every political party, acknowledge the
reality of anthropogentic climate change and the very real dangers it poses to
(very flat) Denmark and the world. Danes know that Denmark is too small for a
drop in its emissions to make much of a difference, but they seem more than
willing to do their part by reducing energy use, subsidizing alternative power
sources (etc.) and applying what limited diplomatic influence they have. Denmark
is economically comfortable enough to really invest in these things and has
both a highly functional government and a populace willing to implement the
policies that their leaders decide upon. I am sure there are people in Denmark
who disagree, but I haven't met (or even heard of) them. Unlike most countries,
they have made their emission reduction targets law (although how such a law is
enforced is unclear to me).
Because of the above, not despite it, Denmark convinces me
that humanity will rush headlong into global ecological disaster. I say this
because if any country has the willingness and ability to implement the
policies needed to avoid disaster, it is Denmark, and they are not there. For
while Denmark invests in weaning itself off fossil fuels, it also invests very
heavily in the fossil fuel industry, notably North Sea oil and gas exploration.
The Danish government surely believes, probably correctly, that the will does
not exist in the populace to give up on the profits of involvement in the
scramble for hydrocarbons. So while Denmark
is trying hard not to burn those fuels here in Denmark, it is trying hard to
sell them to someone else who will burn them, doing every bit as much to
submerge the Danish lowlands (aka Denmark). Danes know this, but like the rest
of the world (I'm looking at you Canadian Tar Sands) they seem to feel (again probably correctly) that if they don't
do it someone else (Norway, UK, etc.) will.
So I can imagine a possible future in which all countries
have become as convinced as Denmark is that humans are hurtling into climate
disaster and need to hit the breaks, and that would be great, but I have trouble imagining that even in
such a world this peculiar form of the tragedy of the commons would be escapable.
As long as there is demand for fossil fuels, there will always be others who
will extract and sell them because if they don't do it someone else will. And there will always be countries who, even if they fully understand the global situation, need inexpensive fuel and will burn those hydrocarbons. And
as long as that is the case, no amount of individual turning down of heat and
biking to work is going to make a big enough difference to matter. The problem
is structural and that structure is disastrously profitable.
Unless, of course, and this is me looking for that ray of
hope, other sources of energy rapidly become so much cheaper than fossil fuels
that there is just not much profit to be made in extracting oil, coal or gas. In
which case, we will be able to say that all those solar panels installed in the gloom of Denmark were not in vain, but were a vote of confidence and a wise subsidy
for the development of alternative energy
